UK higher education pacing toward a strong fall enrolment amid mixed market trends

In its latest data release on 13 July 2023, the United Kingdom’s central applications service, UCAS, unveiled a promising surge in international student applications for the 2023/24 undergraduate programs. The figures, collected up until the 30 June application deadline, reflect a 2.4% rise in application volume compared to the previous year.

UCAS reported a total of 138,050 international student applications by the June deadline. European Union (EU) students comprised slightly over 16% of this total, with 22,400 applicants. The majority of applications, amounting to 115,650, were submitted by non-EU students.

While the data showed a slight decline in EU applications, the growth in non-EU applications more than compensated for the dip. This trend aligns with the findings of Enroly, an enrolment conversion platform, which highlighted noteworthy year-over-year increases in tuition deposits (+11.67%), Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuances (+11.36%), and visas issued (+62.04%).

Enroly revealed that approximately a quarter of international student admissions in the UK are managed through its platform. With a dataset boasting over 100,000 offers to international students, the platform’s significance in the admissions process is evident.

However, among the positive growth, a nuanced picture emerges. Enroly’s analysis exposed a downward trajectory in Indian and Nigerian enrolments for the 2023/24 academic year. Indian applications registered an -8.38% decrease on the platform, while Nigerian applications witnessed a significant -15.35% decline.

This decline in Nigerian demand seems to be linked to the recent devaluation of the naira, placing additional financial strain on students intending to fund their studies in the UK. Enroly’s reports indicate a staggering 170% increase in Nigerian students classified under ‘closed/lost’ stages on the platform, hinting at a potential rise in deferrals and withdrawals this year.

Enroly CEO Jeff Williams remarked on the situation, stating, “Informal conversations with many of our partners have indicated that the key markets of India and Nigeria were down slightly, something shown in these latest figures. But it’s interesting to see the numbers demonstrate a brighter outlook overall at this stage of the intake.”

As the UK’s higher education sector navigates these mixed market dynamics, the growth in international applications, particularly from non-EU countries, offers a glimmer of optimism for the upcoming academic year.